What is this Thing we Call Public Opinion? Reflections on the Spiral of Silence

摘要

This article evaluates the adequacy of the spiral of silence model as an explanation of how public opinion functions in contemporary society by examining the various ways in which perceptions of the view held by a majority affect a person’s behavior and political strategies. It differentiates among three orientations—the cognitive to resolve ambiguities, the strategic to gain a competitive advantage, and the normative to avoid disapproval. The normative orientation, unduly emphasized in the spiral of silence model, is more typical of homogeneous societies than of pluralistic societies that harbor many constituencies with conflicting interests, where the rather fragile consensus rests at least as much on effective discourse as on disciplinary enforcement of social codes.