Minimising the effects of dysfunctional corporate culture in estimation and evaluation processes: A constructively simple approach

摘要

This paper explores connections between subjective judgements about uncertainty and corporate culture which are relevant to everyone interested in estimating project parameters or interpreting estimates prepared by others. The basis of the discussion is a simple example, drawn from an actual case. It involves estimating the uncertain duration of a project activity in an organisation with two common cultural conditions: a 'conspiracy of optimism', and 'irrational objectivity'. After considering some conventional approaches, the paper goes on to suggest a 'constructively simple' approach to estimation which is responsive to the emerging analysis and which also incorporates end-user adjustments to counter culturally driven uncertainties and bias.