The strategy of parallel approaches in projects with unforeseeable uncertainty: The Manhattan case in retrospect

摘要

This paper discusses the literature on the management of projects with unforeseeable uncertainty. Recent work demonstrates that, when confronted with unforeseeable uncertainties, managers can adopt either a learning, trial-and-error-based strategy, or a parallel approach. In the latter, different solutions are developed in parallel and the best one is chosen when enough information becomes available. Studying the case of the Manhattan Project, which historically exemplifies the power of the parallel approach, has led us to show that the either/or logic underlying the existing literature on the parallel approach oversimplifies the question. The Manhattan case demonstrates that managers must not necessarily choose between solutions, but can also combine them or add new ones during the project.