Simulation of land green supply chain based on system dynamics and policy optimization

摘要

The dependence of human beings on natural resources is long-standing, and land resource is a crucial part of these natural resources. In recent years, land pollution and resource shortage have severely affected the normal lives of individuals. There is a growing appreciation of the need for studying the green supply chain of land. In this study, the land green supply chain is divided into subsystems of technology (T), energy (E), environment (E), and economy (E), which construct TEEE dynamic model. Based on the model, we simulate the develop trend of technology, energy, environment, and economy in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2020. Moreover, we find out optimal polices to realize economic and environmental objectives of 2020 of Shandong Province, and get the optimization scheme for environmental policy as below: water quota for farmland irrigation is 2780 m(2) per hectare, quota for urban water consumption is 33 m(3) per capita per year, quota for industrial water consumption is 8 m(3) per CNY10000 and unqualified rate of industrial waste water is 1%. If regulating and controlling as per such objectives, total industrial population will be reduced to 99.87 million, total industrial output value will reach CNY 44.68 trillion and environmental pollution degree will get down to 1.153.