Prediction, even of tomorrow's weather, remains a decidedly inexact science, but forecasting strategic geo-political or economic change is vastly more challenging. The Old Farmers' Almanac has been in continuous publication in the United States since 1792, predicting long-term weather patterns and phases of the moon, among other things. But in 1942 the U.S. government sought to ban its publication after a German spy with a copy of the Almanac was apprehended. Suspicions centered on what the German might have found of intelligence value in this household volume, with special concern focused on "weather forecasts." Confronted with a potential wartime ban on its publication, the Almanac relabeled that section "weather indications," and the threatened ban was vacated. The Almanac's "prediction" had nothing to do with warfare and everything to do with when to plant crops and gardens. Those interested in intelligence analysis, prediction, and political or economic forecasting can only wish that such a simple semantic change would solve the field's manifold dilemmas. Moreover, gratification would also improve if senior analysts' consumers were to find the forecasts so significant. Intelligence forecasting is not astrology. Analysts do not rely on reading palms or the stars. Their tools exclude tarot cards, Ouija boards, and crystal balls, and "connecting dots" is not what they do. Intelligence is about reducing uncertainty for policy and decisionmakers, avoiding unwelcome (especially strategic) surprises, and anticipating-as best it can-possible future developments. Yet, can intelligence be relied upon for accurate prediction and forecasting?
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