The Motley of Intelligence Analysis: Getting over the Idea of a Professional Model

摘要

The United States Intelligence Community (IC) has had more than a decade to reflect on its failure to predict the catastrophic events of 11 September 2001 (9/11). Nearly as much time has passed since the IC's mischaracterization of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program, a mistake that led to the costly expansion of what became the war on terrorism. More cause for recrimination followed when key U.S. decisionmakers seemed to fundamentally misunderstand what was required to pacify Iraq and Afghanistan. The wars in both countries hit repeated snags that should have been seen going in. How could the intelligence analysts who were supposed to have briefed U.S. leaders on the risks of these undertakings have left their audiences so poorly informed?1