Slope-Dynamic Reliability Analysis Considering Spatial Variability of Soil Parameters

摘要

Slope instability caused by earthquakes often brings huge casualties and property losses, and so it has great practical significance for seismic design and disaster prevention to evaluate the stability of slopes accurately and reasonably. Numerous tests and engineering practices have shown that many factors affecting the stability of slopes, such as rock and soil properties, are very random. The reliability analysis method can effectively consider random factors and quantitatively describe the safety level of a slope stochastic system. Based on the dynamic reliability analysis of a slope using the probability density evolution method, the spatial variability of soil parameters is taken into consideration by simulating the relevant nonnormal random fields. The results showed that the dynamic failure probability of the slope grows by increasing the cross-correlation coefficient between soil parameters. Moreover, the failure probability is underestimated when the spatial variability of soil parameters is ignored.