Risk Assessment for Future Violence in Individuals from an Ethnic Minority Group

摘要

Across several countries (including the UK and U.S.) people of black (African-Caribbean) origin are overrepresented in secure psychiatric services. Risk assessment instruments for predicting violence are often used, but their accuracy is not known for ethnic minority patients. We therefore aimed: 1) to test the accuracy of two leading instruments (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and HCR20 Risk Management Scheme) in patients from a black ethnic minority, and (2) to compare the levels of risk as defined by these instruments. Risk assessments were completed using only file information available at the time of discharge. Offending behavior postdischarge was obtained from official records with each patient being followed for at least 2 years. Both VRAG and HCR-20 were significant predictors of future violence for black patients, and had similar accuracy as when used on white patients. Risk assessment scores were slightly lower for black patients, but there were no significant differences in reconviction rates for either violent or general offences post discharge. The results provide an evidence base for the use of HCR-20 and VRAG as an accurate risk assessment instruments for black ethnic minority patients in the UK.