SIMULATION APPLICATION AND PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT FOR AHMEDABAD METRO RAIL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT THROUGH EVM, FUZZY EVM, AND FUZZY AHP

摘要

This paper is an attempt to develop a comprehensive risk analysis framework for the elevated corridor metro rail project of Ahmedabad, India using Expected Value Method (EVM), Fuzzy Expected Value Method (FEVM) and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The outcome of the analysis by all three methods reveals that the risks during the erection of the pre-cast segments is most critical and need to be monitored most efficiently by the project authorities. Other risks which need very careful monitoring include the risks in launching girder erection and risks in segment casting. Carrying out 10,000 runs of Monte Carlo simulation for computation of the expected cost of the project has resulted in obtaining a value of INR 2606 million. The corresponding expected time is 2151 days. This result is comparable with the values of expected cost obtained through the expert questionnaire survey which is INR 2586 million and the corresponding expected time of 2151 days. Path analysis through Monte Carlo simulation has resulted in identifying the critical path which takes the maximum time for project completion. The corresponding simulated cost has been obtained. The minimum simulated time and cost of the project has also been obtained. The proposed comprehensive risk analysis framework would act as a guide for developing similar frameworks for ongoing and upcoming metro rail projects across the globe.