Industry sector contribution to the GDP. A future scenario analysis for the establishment of an electric vehicle industry in the UAE by 2040

摘要

This paper attempts to build three possible scenarios for the establishment of an electric vehicle industry in the United Arab Emirates in the next two decades through the investment of approximately 60 billion dollars aimed at producing two million electric vehicles by 2040. The proposed scenarios are built to compensate the expected fall in oil revenue in the long-run as main source of export. Key factors that lead to successful establishment include the technological shift that already taking place in the transportation sector worldwide, increasing usage and spread of electric vehicles, significant improvements in alternative energies, mainly solar energy, and improved battery storage capacities. The three scenarios explored, the preferred scenario , optimistic scenario and pessimistic scenario estimate investments over the next 20 years, suggesting areas for the establishment of this industry between Al Mirfa and Ruwais zones with seaport in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The suggested road map for its realisation includes four stages, from present and until 2040. The preferred scenario particularly illustrates a realistic future setting in fostering the diversification of the country's economic base.