The Original Supply Siders: Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge

摘要

The economic policies of the Harding-Coolidge era were a conservative reaction against the "progressive" trend that characterized American political economy after 1900. These policies sparked one of the most successful economic expansions in American history. National economic performance between 1921 and 1928 was by all measures impressive. Unemployment dropped from 11.3 percent to 4.7 percent (Carter et al. 2006, 2:82). Between 1922 and 1929, nonfarm incomes increased 22 percent, and farm incomes 87 percent (Soule 1947, 232). Real GDP per capita (1996 dollars) increased 24 percent from $5,168 to $6,389. This prosperity was widespread; even though the top 1 percent of wage earners saw their share of the economic pie increase from 15.5 to 18.4 percent, and the top 10 percent of wage earners saw their share increase from 42.9 to 46.1 percent, the vast majority of the remaining population also enjoyed increases in real wages (Carter et al. 2006, 2:656, 3:24). American economic policy and prosperity during the Harding-Coolidge era are hard to miss. Tables 2 and 4 summarize real GDP, national debt, and discretionary federal expenses on a per capita basis from 1917, the beginning of Wilson's second term, to 1932, the end of Hoover's term. The data illustrate the Harding-Coolidge efforts to responsibly minimize both debt and costs and show that national economic output significantly improved during the same time period.