Outlook for International Coal Market

摘要

1. Under the prolonged global weakness of coal prices, coal mining companies are shutting down coalmines, suspending production or making production adjustments, holding down production. Meanwhile, a brake has been applied to a decline in China's coal imports, with a coal glut fading away. As a result, coal prices are stopping their decline and signaling an upturn in 2016 after continuing to fall for more than four years. 2. The spot steam coal price (an FOB price at Newcastle port in Australia) continued a downward trend from $130/ton in 2011 and slipped below $50/ton in January 2016. It remained in a $50-55/ton range later and rose above $60/ton in early July. 3. We forecast that the spot steam coal price will fall on an import drop in autumn to a $55-60/ton range in the second half of 2016 before rising back to around $60/ton on an increase in import demand in Southeast Asia in 2017. 4. The spot coking coal price (an FOB price for Australian hard coking coal) followed a downtrend from more than $300/ton in 2011, slipping below $80/ton to $77/ton in December 2015. It rose back to $100/ton in late April 2016 before remaining in a $90-100/ton range. 5. We forecast that the spot coking coal price will stay in a $90-95/ton range in the second half of 2016 before rising to a $95-100/ton range on an Indian import increase in 2017.