Outlook for Japanese and Foreign Oil Situations

摘要

1. We forecast the average international price in 2016 at $50 per barrel for Brent, $48/bbl for Dubai and $46/bbl for West Texas Intermediate. Crude oil prices are likely to test lower ground under oversupply and high inventories for the immediate future before turning up with a supply excess being eliminated gradually toward the second half of 2016. If the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries increases production excessively, if demand in China and other emerging countries decelerates, or if U.S. shale oil production is more resistant than expected to low oil prices, however, average crude oil prices may be $ 10/bbl less than the abovementioned forecasts.