World Energy Supply/demand Outlook and Climate Change Scenario Analysis Considering Technological Progress Impacts

摘要

CO_2 reduction policies lower damage caused by climate change while mitigation costs sharply increase as the CO_2 reduction amount increases. We developed four scenarios to estimate the impacts of the decreased costs of innovative technologies on costs and temperature changes using a climate change model up to 2300. The Standard Scenario assumes that abatement costs decrease with technological progress under current model assumptions. The Technological Innovation Scenario assumes that future technological innovation moderates a sharp increase in the marginal abatement cost at high CO_2 reduction rates. For a comparison, we developed the Baseline Scenario and the 50% Reduction by 2050 Scenario. The 50% Reduction by 2050 Scenario assumes global GHG emissions decrease by 50% from 2014 by 2050 and the trend continues afterwards. Although the 50% Reduction by 2050 Scenario moderates a temperature rise, the costs become much higher. Although the Standard Scenario moderates mitigation costs, the temperature rise exceeds 3℃ above pre-industrial levels. The Technological Innovation Scenario moderates mitigation costs and the temperature rise is nearly 2℃ above pre-industrial levels if the climate sensitivity is 2.5℃. Collaborating and investing on innovative technologies is important for countries to prevent a high temperature rise.