The Feasibility of 'Complete Decarbonization' of Japan's Power Sector in 2050 - a Preliminary Study

摘要

This study focuses on the power sector in Japan in 2050 and investigates the possibility of achieving "zero emissions" using an optimal power generation mix (OPGM) model with a 10-min resolution through a year, fully taking into account the grid integration costs with high penetration of intermittent renewable energy. Although the potentials of renewable energies such as wind and solar PV are estimated to be large in Japan, as well as in other countries, the grid integration costs, such as the costs for batteries, curtailment of renewable power output, grid extension and reinforcement, etc., become significant in cases with very high shares of intermittent renewables. In this regard, it would be indispensable to introduce a certain amount of electricity generated by "zero-emission thermal power" technologies, including fossil-fuel fired power generation with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) or CO_2-free imported hydrogen. Nuclear power is also estimated as effective to reduce the cost hike associated with achieving zero emissions.