Fault Tree Analysis With Interval Uncertainty: A Case Study of the Aircraft Flap Mechanism

摘要

This article proposes an uncertainty analysis method for evaluating the reliability of a system and calculating the relative importance of the system inputs when the probabilities of basic events are characterized by intervals. The reliability requirement or the safety criterion is first considered in the system reliability assessment. A nonprobabilistic reliability index, called R-index, is defined to evaluate the reliability of the system. Two importance measure indices, called location effect and size effect, are introduced for estimating the influence of the probability uncertainties of basic events on the R-index, thus identifying influential and noninfluential basic events and comparing their relative importance. Then, the proposed method is applied to an illustrative fault tree example and the fault tree analysis of unilateral asymmetric movement of an aircraft flap mechanism, thereby explaining the significance of this method. The results show that the proposed method provides a viable tool for system reliability and importance measure analysis when probability intervals are involved.