Planning Water Resources Allocation Under Multiple Uncertainties Through a Generalized Fuzzy Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Method

摘要

In this study, a generalized fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (GFTSP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. The developed GFTSP method can deal with uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, as well as fuzzy random variables. With the aid of a robust stepwise interactive algorithm, solutions for GFTSP can be generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels. Furthermore, the possibility information (expressed as fuzzy membership functions) can be reflected in the solutions for the objective function value and decision variables. The developed GFTSP approach is also applied to a water resources management and planning problem to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions of decision variables and objective function value are expressed as fuzzy membership functions, reflecting the fluctuating ranges of decision alternatives under different plausibilities. And thus, the water alternatives can be directly derived from the obtained fuzzy membership functions when the preferred α value is predefined by decision makers.