Air Cargo Demand Modeling and Prediction

摘要

The air cargo transportation system is a large and complex service system, in which demand forecasting is a key element in the master planning process. Demand forecasting is essential for analyzing existing cargo flight schedules and identifying future facility requirements of air cargo companies. We use the Potluck Problem approach to propose a multiproducer/multiconsumer solution for predicting the cargo demand of a specific airline in a given route, and the cargo load factor for a given flight schedule on that route. This solution considers each airline as a producer and the users of air cargo services as consumers, with a producer having no explicit communication with other producers/airlines. The model analyzes the existing cargo capacity plan, highlights drawbacks, and proposes a new capacity plan to demonstrate the effectiveness of using the solution. Examples are provided to illustrate the efficacy of the approach.