A new coupled ARMA-FGM model and its application in the internet third-party payment forecasting in China

摘要

Purpose - With the rapid development of e-commerce in China, the third-party payment system greatly improved the efficiency and volume of the entire trading market. The purpose of this paper is to put forward a suitable prediction model to analyse its development trend. Design/methodology/approach - The authors analyse internet third-party payments in China, taking into account online payment transaction values coupled with an ARMA model and the fractional grey model (FGM). First, the rolling FGM model is applied in order to characterise the trends of the transaction volume. The influence of the initial value change on the FGM model is analysed. The optimisation mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) model is constructed to determine the optimal translational values, the corresponding optimal accumulation order and optimal inverse accumulation order. Findings - This paper uses China's recent third-party online payment data to quantify its development trend. The authors find the coupling model suitable for the development trend of third-party online payment transaction. The results show that the model is suitable to quantify its development trend of China's recent third-party online payment. Originality/value - Considering the complex influence factors that lead to the third-party online payment volume data of time-varying grey feature, this paper combines the FGM with ARMA model to describe the development of third-party payment mode.