Probabilistic load flow analysis of active distribution network adopting improved sequence operation methodology

摘要

In allusion to the uncertainty and correlation of distributed generation (DG) output in the active distribution network, a new method of probabilistic load flow (PLF) analysis was proposed based on improved sequence operation method. This method utilised the non-parametric kernel density estimation method and established a probabilistic model of DG daily output considering the timing characteristics. Then this method proposed the multivariate joint distribution probabilistic sequence based on the present sequence operation theory to describe the sequence transformation of the probabilistic model. Finally, an improved dependent probabilistic sequence method was proposed and combined with the traditional linear power flow calculation to achieve the probability distribution information of system power flow. Simulation tests were carried out on the modified 33-bus distribution system. Test results indicated that the proposed method can achieve more accurate results of PLF calculation and has higher computational efficiency.