Generational accounting as a tool for modelling social expenditure in Europe

摘要

Exerting an increasing pressure for reform, the demographic ageing process currently under way in Europe will be a main determinant of the development of social expenditure. This article gives an introduction to the method of generational accounting, an instrument designed to capture the effects of demographic change on future public budgets. The method is illustrated by generational accounts for France and a cross-country comparison of implicit public liabilities in Europe. Weighing the method's advantages and shortcomings against each other, the article discusses the role that generational accounting can and should play in modelling the future of social expenditure in Europe.