LONG-TERM PLANNING FOR NUCLEAR POWER'S DEVELOPMENT IN JAPAN FOR A ZERO-CARBON ELECTRICITY GENERATION SYSTEM BY 2100

摘要

The realization of a zero-carbon electricity system is of vital importance to a future zero-carbon energy system and society. Nuclear power is expected to contribute to the realization of a zero-carbon electricity system much more than intermittent, complicated and costly renewable energy in the future in Japan. Therefore, in the present study, nuclear power development for a future zerocarbon energy system was studied through scenario analysis. The study was conducted in three steps to (ⅰ) estimate future electricity demand and electrical load pattern by 2100; (ⅱ) determine the contribution of nuclear power to the electricity generation based on various constraints; and (ⅲ) test the feasibility of the nuclearbased electricity system in term of supply-demand balance. An integrated computer software platform was developed to conduct the analyses. The analysis results show that Fukushima Accident will not affect nuclear development in Japan greatly from a long term viewpoint. Compared with 2005, the total electricity demand will increase by 50% to 2100. Nuclear power contributes 60%-100% of total electricity production and its capacity factor needs to be enhanced from the present 60-1'0% to 80-90%. The nuclear power can be supplied from advanced LWR, FBR even fusion technology.