EXTREME VALUE MODELING OF DAILY PM10 CONCENTRATIONS IN AN INDUSTRIAL AREA

摘要

The concentrations of air pollution measured at a single location are dominated by the emission source and the effects of meteorological conditions. Statistical methods offer a fast and fairly accurate approach to analyze extreme air pollution phenomena. Under this prism, perhaps the most suited modeling tool is the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), which is centered on the modeling of extreme changes above a predefined limit. This paper presents the modeling of daily PM10 (airborne particles with aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm) concentration values from an industrial area in West Macedonia. The central concept of EVT is the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR), which is a measure of the maximum probabilistic change for a selected confidence level (here 95%) from the current air pollution levels.