The impact of the Ukraine crisis on Russian energy policies and on the EU-Russia energy relations

摘要

The analysis shows that all three sectors are closely interrelated between the EU and Russia and that the future carries risks and opportunities. The security crisis in Eastern Europe has reinforced each side's active diversification away from one another, the shift of Russian energy interests to the Pacific. Russian creates new alliances, in particular with Asian state companies and is drifting more into the orbit of China's initiative.The EU-Russian bilateral relationship is at a difficult point and it had been so even before because of the disputes over infrastructure regulation in the EU.The fact that this relatively short period has profoundly affected long-term relations is a warning sign and reveals many underlying problems that have accumulated in the last decade. Russian energy diplomacy has shifted away from multilateral processes and engaged in becoming a balancing power while preserving most of its energy power. This is matched in the EU, where the deterioration of the political relationship in 2014 has resulted in a paradigm shift in energy relations. The crisis in and around Ukraine has prompted EU member states to rethink their (inter-) dependencies with Russia. Yet, the securitisation of energy policy on both sides runs counter to economic realities and commercial rationalities. This is taking place at a time when mere energy relations would require more dialogue, a balance of interests and an adaptation of demand-and-supply strategies.