A numerical study of storm surge and inundation in the Croatan―Albemarle―Pamlico Estuary System

摘要

An integrated storm surge and inundation modeling system is used to simulate the storm surge and inundation in the Croatan―Albemarle―Pamlico Estuary System in eastern North Carolina under the influence of 10 hypothetical Category 2 and 3 hurricanes representing typical historical hurricane scenarios in the study region. The integrated storm surge and inundation modeling system is numerically stable in the complex and shallow CAPES environment under hurricane forcing conditions. For an assumed northward or northeastward moving Category 3 hurricane with a translation speed of 25 km/h, the peak storm surge occurs along the western Pamlico Sound and western Albemarle Sound. The most severe flooding as measured by inundation area is in the Pamlico River mouth region where the flooding area reached 500 km~2. In general, a more intense or larger hurricane (lower minimum central pressure, MCP or larger radius of maximum wind, RMW) produces higher storm surge and a larger inundation area in the entire region. For the cases considered in this study, the storm surge height and inundation area are more sensitive to MCP than to RMW. Slower translation speed produces higher storm surge, and thus larger inundation area, but the sensitivity of storm surge to storm translation speed can be vastly different for different storms.