Moving beyond multilateralism: climate-change governance post-Copenhagen

摘要

It is hard to imagine a more imposing problem than that of climate change. Broad consensus exists that our climate is changing due to the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide as a by-product of fossil-fuel consumption. With a warming atmosphere come sea-level rises, increased frequency as well as severity of storms and droughts, and changes in disease vectors, species migration, and agricultural productivity. Yet despite such heightened stakes, little progress has been made on global climate-change governance over the last 20 years. Inaction has scientific, economic, and political roots - all tied to the temporal distance of the threats. While broad consensus exists on the anthropogenic causes of climate change, a number of scientific uncertainties still cloud the issue. The exact relationship between temperature and climatic changes, such as increased severity and frequency of storms and shifts in patterns of precipitation, is not fully understood. Natural variability may also mask, or even exacerbate, the GHG effect. Much uncertainty exists as to how bad climate change will really be. This then brings attention to our second category of obstacles and questions as to whether huge investments for climate mitigation are truly worth their cost. GHG emissions are connected to virtually every human activity; the foundation of our modern economy, they have come to define economic growth worldwide. Moving to alternative sources of energy, transportation, and production will not be cheap.