Simulation and evaluation on the eco-industrial system of Changchun economic and technological development zone, China

摘要

Reasonable structure, adaptive patterns and effective regulation of society, economy and environment subsystems should be taken into account in order to obtain harmonious development of urban eco-industrial system. We simulated and evaluated a redesigned eco-industrial system in Changchun Economic and Technological Development Zone (CCETDZ) in the present work using system dynamics and grey cluster methods. Four typical development strategies were simulated during 2005-2020 via standard system dynamic models. Furthermore, analytic hierarchy process and grey cluster allowed for the eco-industrial system evaluation and scenarios optimizing. Our dynamic simulation and statistical analysis revealed that: (1) CCETDZ would have different development scenarios under different strategies. The total population in scenario 2 grew most rapidly and reached 3.28 × 10~5 in 2020, exceeding its long-term planning expected population. And the GDP differences among these four scenarios would amount to 6.41 × 10~(10) RMB. On the other hand, environmental pollution would become serious along with economy increasing. As a restriction factor, positive or negative increment of water resource will occur according to the selected strategy. (2) The fourth strategy would have the best efficiency, which means that the most efficiently development of CCETDZ required to take science, technology, environment progress and economy increase into account at the same time. (3) Positive environment protection measures, such as cleaner production, green manufacture, production life cycle management and environment friendly industries, should be attached great importance the same as economy development during 2005-2020 in CCETDZ.