Multidimensional Approaches to Calculation of Design Floods at Confluences-PROIL Model and Copulas

摘要

In confluence areas, where river flow slowdowns can be substantial, the selection of design flows for the purpose of designing a flood control system directly depends on flood waves at the mainstem and its tributaries. The aim of this paper is twofold: to elaborate a procedure that will define the flood exceedance probability in the analyzed area within a multidimensional probability space and to develop a methodology for defining flood coincidence in the mainstem reach with its main tributaries and thus determine design flows in order to design the flood control system in the confluence area. Mathematical models are based on (1) two-dimensional probability distribution (PROIL model) and (2) the copula function (Archimedean class of copulas), and fitted to a practical application in a two-dimensional probability distribution space. In case of random variables, simultaneous quantitative characteristics of flood wave (water flow) hydrographs for the mainstem and a tributary are considered. The paper discusses the specific reach of the Danube, from the Hungarian-Serbian border to the city of Smederevo, which encompasses three significant tributaries-the Drava, the Tisa, and the Sava.