A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework

摘要

A new Swiss TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) electricity model with an hourly representation of inter-temporal detail and a century-long model horizon has been developed to explore the TIMES framework's suitability as a long-term electricity dispatch model. To understand the incremental insights from this hourly model, it is compared to an aggregated model with only two diurnal timeslices like in most MARKAL/TIMES models. Two scenarios have been analysed with both models to answer the following questions: Are there differences in model solutions? What are the benefits of having a high number of timeslices? Are there any computational limitations? The primary objective of this paper is to understand the differences between the solutions of the two models, rather than Swiss policy implication or potential uncertainties in input parameters and assumptions. The analysis reveals that the hourly model offers powerful insights into the electricity generation schedule. Nevertheless, the TIMES framework cannot substitute for a dispatch model because some features cannot be represented;however, the long model time horizon and integrated system approaches of TIMES provide features not available in conventional dispatch models. The methodology of the model development and insights from the model comparison are described.