Rabbit Population Landscape-Scale Simulation to Investigate the Relevance of Using Rabbits in Regulatory Environmental Risk Assessment

摘要

This paper describes the development and testing of the ALMaSS rabbit model and its baseline, and subsequently its application to the question of lagomorph population vulnerability in environmental risk assessment (ERA). Development and testing following a pattern-oriented modelling protocol resulted in a model able to replicate local and landscape-level rabbit population patterns. We then tested how robust rabbit populations are to an (imaginary) extreme toxic stressor at a landscape level in a variety of landscapes, and to what extremes key uncertain model parameters must be pushed to cause extinctions. This was contrasted with the same (imaginary) toxic stressor applied to the already existing ALMaSS hare model. For EU risk assessment of plant protection products, these results clearly indicate that if the protection goal is population-level impacts, either in abundance and/or distribution, then the hare is a much more vulnerable species than the rabbit under all the conditions tested. Rabbits would only be more vulnerable than hares if the entire population were to be exposed simultaneously, when lower body mass would then be a critical factor. This did not occur even though the toxicant and exposure scenarios tested here were extreme and, in fragmented landscapes at scales used here, will not occur in reality from the use of plant protection products on crop fields. As well as specifically answering the question on rabbit versus hare vulnerability, this study generally illustrates the potential application of models for setting focal species for risk assessments.