Energy demand and supply planning of China through 2060

摘要

At the General Debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, a new objective that China will stop adding to the global warming problem by 2060 was proposed. However, the energy demand of China is increasing with the fast-growing economy and China relies heavily for its electricity on coal, which will make it difficult to achieve carbon neutrality. Therefore, the energy demand and supply planning in the future for China should be optimized. In this work, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System was used to forecast the end-use energy demand of China. A new mixed-integer linear programming model was developed to optimize the energy structure, infrastructure projects and exploitation schemes under the constraint of greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, an economic, feasible and sustainable energy planning was also obtained. Results show that the electrification rate, green hydrogen demand and other energy demand of China will increase substantially. The coal production capacity will be concentrated, the integration of oil production and refining will be gradually realized, and the production of non-fossil power will increase considerably. The total greenhouse gas emissions of the energy consumption in China between 2017 and 2060 will be approximately 262,783 million tons of CO2 equivalents. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.