Ice flood characteristics and channel detention in the Ningxia-inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River

摘要

The frequency and scale of ice floods in the Ningxia-inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River are extremely high, often resulting in major disasters. Therefore, understanding the causes of ice floods in the region, and the factors affecting them, is highly important. Using data acquired from 1951 to 2010, we show here that the main factors influencing risks of ice flood disaster are temperature, channel detention, flow rates and human activity. In addition, cross-correlation analysis of detailed data from 1990 to 2005 revealed that the main factors affecting channel detention (and ice flood disasters) are temperature, water from upstream and the ice regime. The results were used to construct, and validate, a predictive channel detention model. The findings and model extend scientific understanding of the causes and factors affecting ice flood disasters, and could facilitate attempts to prevent their occurrence and reduce associated losses.