Modeling of risk assessment for forest fire disasters, pests, diseases and rodent damages in Beijing, China

摘要

The study on the occurrence of forest fires and damages caused by pests, diseases and rodents in Beijing is of profound significance for the forestry development and forest resources management. This paper puts forward a model of risk assessment in Beijing by using the probit regression method. The results show that forest fire disasters in Beijing and gross output value of the forest industry are negatively correlated. The study also points out that forest fires and gross output value of forest industry follow the risk assessment model, with the significance level p=0.152, which presenting statistical significance of the model. The research studies the correlation of forest pest, disease and rodent damages estimation and investment in silviculture capital construction, which showing that investing more in silviculture capital construction can reduce the forest pests, diseases and rodent damages. In addition, the study estimates probit regression models for investment in silviculture capital construction and the forest pests, diseases and rodent damages. Finally, the paper suggests that when carrying out forestry production, forest fire prevention should be enhanced and the forest capital investment should be strengthened to reduce the forest pests, diseases and rodent damages in Beijing.