The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: An ARDL approach

摘要

We re-examine the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output, as well as employment, in the United States using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach developed by Pesaran and Pesaran [Pesaran, M.H., Pesaran, B., 1997. Working with Microfit 4.0. Camfit Data Ltd, Cambridge] and Pesaran, Shin and Smith [Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J., 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16; 289-326] In particular, we focus attention on the following energy consumption variables: coal, fossil fuels, conventional hydroelectric power, solar energy, wind energy, natural gas, wood, and waste. The sample period covers 2001:1-2005:6. Our results imply that real output and employment are long run forcing variables for nearly all measures of disaggregate energy consumption.