Assessment of mid-to-long term energy saving impacts of nearly zero energy building incentive policies in cold region of China

摘要

Nearly zero energy building (NZEB) has become an effective solution in building sector to climate change. In 2017, China first set up a NZEB target of 10 million m(2) by the end of 2020, followed by a series of incentive policies on provincial level issued for NZEB promotion that has expanded NZEB floor area from almost zero to 12 million m(2). However, impact of NZEB policies on building energy reduction in mid to long term and contribution to energy peak reduction remain unknown. This study collected 47 existing policies and analyzed their impact on building energy consumption. A policy-driven model composed of conservative, moderate and propulsive scenarios was established, through which total building energy consumption of representative provinces in cold region of China from 2020 to 2050 was calculated. Results showed that under moderate scenario, with 100% NZEB market penetration in 2050 and "30-3 0-30" mid-term goal by 2030, energy consumption could save 13% by 2030 and 60% by 2050, compare to the conservative scenario. In response to carbon emission target of China, the year 2025, 2030 and 2035 should be set as the governmental enforcement year for ultra-low energy buildings, NZEB and ZEB respectively, according to propulsive scenario. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.