The Effect of Chinese Population Aging on Income Inequality: Based on a Micro-Macro Multiregional Dynamic CGE Modelling Analysis

摘要

This paper uses simulation results from a dynamic computable model as well as estimates by the United Nations of trends in China's population in 2010-2050 to determine the impact of the aging of the population on changes in commodities and price factors at the macro level. Then, the paper uses a top-down and bottom-up cyclic link to connect macroeconomic variables to a micro-level family simulation model, based on the regional characteristics of the distribution of population aging in the country. The empirical results suggest that, with an aging population, the working population decreases, which induces increases in income inequality. Moreover, older families in western China would suffer from the most severe income inequality, and gaps between groups in different regions are progressively increasing as the population ages.