A dynamic model for generation expansion planning based on Conditional Value-at-Risk theory under Low-Carbon Economy

摘要

Realizing low-carbon development of power system is one of the most urgent issues among power industry, especially under the era of Low-Carbon Economy. Generation expansion planning (GEP) plays a key role in reducing carbon emission. In this paper, after revealing the impact of uncertainties on GEP, simulating the uncertainties of fuel price, carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction technology and carbon price, considering high grid integration of micro-grids, a dynamic model for GEP based on Conditional Value-at-Risk theory is proposed. On the basis of traditional GEP, the model analyzes the investment decisions which are made by generation company in different risk scenarios and considers the constraint of the risk of uncertainties. An actual case is studied based on a provincial grid in China by applying the proposed model, and the results prove it to be more adaptable and effective for the sustainable development of future power system. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.