In search of an insurance policy

摘要

It is not hard to worry about the world economy. America is either in, or perilously close to, recession, and other rich economies are weakening as the credit crunch tightens. In its new forecast, the International Monetary Fund expects global growth to slow from 4.9% last year to 4.1%: rich countries will manage only 1.8%. But that could prove optimistic. Since this slowdown came from a financial bust, the outlook is particularly uncertain. Nobody knows what financial calamities lurk under the surface or by how much credit will shrink. But one thing is clear. By adopting very different stances to the threat, policymakers are not helping to assuage the uncertainty.