The Great Stabilisation

摘要

It has become known as the "Great Recession", the year in which the global economy suffered its deepest slump since the second world war. But an equally apt name would be the "Great Stabilisation". For 2009 was extraordinary not just for how out-rnput fell, but for how a catastrophe was averted.rnTwelve months ago, the panic sown by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers had pushed financial markets close to collapse. Global economic activity, from industrial production to foreign trade, was falling faster than in the early 1930s. This time, though, the decline was stemmed within months. Big emerging economies accelerated first and fastest. China's output, which stalled but never fell, was growing by an annual-ised rate of some 17% in the second quarter. By mid-year the world's big, rich economies (with the exception of Britain and Spain) had started to expand again. Only a few laggards, such as Latvia and Ireland, are now likely still to be in recession.