Running to stand still

摘要

THE INVESTORS gathered at a posh Cairo restaurant were eager to pour money into an economy that, just three years ago, lacked the hard currency to import cooking oil. A revolution in 2011 (and a coup two years later) tipped Egypt into economic crisis. Investors and tourists fled. Growth was anaemic. Unemployment peaked at 13.2%. President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi had to seek a $12bn loan from the IMF in 2016. Since then, though, his government has followed what one executive admiringly calls "almost a caricature" of an imf programme. The state has raised electricity and fuel prices. This summer the (previously massively subsidised) official price of many types of petrol will be indexed to market rates. Quite a few people have been trimmed from subsidy rolls. A budget deficit that hit 12.5% of GDP in 2015-16 has fallen. Next year it is expected to be a manageable 7.5%. The current-account deficit, which bottomed out at $19.8bn three years ago, was $6bn last year (see chart). Investors call Egypt the world's hottest emerging market. Bond sales are oversubscribed.