We examine the response of mortgage credit volumes to the Fed's planned monetary tightening campaign of continued policy rate increases and slowed future purchases of agency securitized mortgages. A shadow policy rate measures unconventional policy tools used at the zero lower bound. After the Great Recession, our results from a time-varying parameter factor-augmented VAR model show that a policy rate increase identified with sign restrictions shifts mortgage lending from banks to less regulated nonbanks. More mortgage funding comes from increased issuance of agency rather than private-label securitized mortgages. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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