Exploring the driving forces of farmland loss under rapidurbanization using binary logistic regression and spatial regression: A case study of Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay

摘要

The unprecedented accelerating urbanization in China has led to a sharp decline in cultivated land. In this paper, the dynamics of farmland patterns during three periods (1994–2003, 2003–2009, 2009–2015) in the Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay (SHB) area are exhibited by dynamic change models and standard deviation ellipse analysis. Additionally, further detection of the determinants of farmland loss is carried out, through a combination of binary logistic regression and spatial regression models. Seven proximate driving factors are selected: distance to water; distance to coastline; distance to city center; and distance to roads (provincial road, national road, highway, and railway). The results suggest that Shanghai experienced the most drastic changes in farmland during the study periods across the whole city agglomeration, and this impact spatially diffused to its adjacent cities. Meanwhile, the transportation routes, especially for provincial road and national road, are quantitatively verified to be the most prominent determinants with a negative influence. Our research highlights that the serious farmland loss should be addressed in highly urbanized area. Furthermore, there is an urgent need for the government to formulate efficient policies for farmland protection and to curb the spread of this phenomenon in the urban agglomeration.