A Preliminary Study on the Use of NCEP Temperature Images and Additive Tectonic Stress from Astro-Tidal-Triggering to Forecast Short-Impending Earthquakes

摘要

Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Tibet, China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example, the paper analyses the M_s ≥ 6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_s ≥ 7.0 earthquakes that occurred overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction of America (NCEP) with the additive tectonic stress from astro-tidal-triggering ( ATSA) and makes the following conclusions: The abnormal temperature image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-temporal evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The ATSA has an evident triggering effect on the activity of a fault when the terra stress is in critical status; using the NCEP images and the ATSA to forecast short-impending earthquake is a new concept; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective ATSA cycle, i. e. that occurred at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of a peak, rather than at the time when the variation rate was maximal. In addition, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003 ～ 2004 in Tibet was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.