The Mechanism of Crowd Stampede Based on Case Statistics through SNA Method

摘要

Stampede is a concern of urban pubic security management. The current academic research focus is the identification of risk factors of trampling accidents and determination of correlation patterns and accident-causing mechanisms among stampede elements in order to effectively obtain the influencing factors of stampede and clarify the transmission routes of stampede risk factors. Previous index cases were scrutinized and analyzed in 78 typical stampedes from 2010 - 2019 based on "pedestrian-equipment-environment-management" framework, and 17 influencing factors of stampede by adopting a conceptual coding method were obscured. Then, the degree centrality, intermediate centrality and respective weights of the influencing factors were calculated based on the social network analysis (SNA) method. The influencing level of the factors was signified, and the transmission mechanism of risk in the system network was determined. The results reveal that the degree centrality and weight with conspicuous features of over-density of crowds, pedestrian swarming and falling, and insufficient on-site transactions contribute the most. This finding indicates that these factors play a relatively major role in the stampede system. Furthermore, the intermediate centrality of insufficient on-site transactions is the top factor, meaning that this factor has a strong controlling force in the incident system and considerably influences other factors. This study shows that the SNA method is feasible in analyzing the mechanism of stampede incidents, simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of the linear statistical model of factors and providing theoretical support for comprehensive control of crowd risk.