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Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Fuzzy C-Means Clustering and Improved SSABP

机译:基于奇异频谱分析的短期风速预测,模糊C型聚类和改进的SSABP

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Overuse of non-renewable energy has seriously affected environment, wind power is of vital significance to alleviate the energy crisis and protect the environment. The forecasting accuracy of wind speed has a positive correlation with the effective utilization rate of wind energy. BP neural network has advantages over traditional prediction models in dealing with nonlinear problems, but it has different generalization ability to different data. Therefore, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA), fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA-BP). Firstly, after the raw wind speed data are obtained, singular spectrum analysis is employed to de-noise, so as to improve the data quality. Secondly, the input dataset of BP is divided into several categories using FCM, and the number of classifications for two different datasets is obtained through multiple experiments. Thirdly, since the selection of parameters largely determines the performance of BP neural network, the improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA) is adopted to optimize the weights and thresholds. Then different ISSA-BP models are built for each class of input datasets. Finally, the class of forecasting input is determined and the corresponding ISSA-BP is used for forecasting. The experimental results of two cases showed that the proposed model was not only suitable for one-step forecasting, but also improved the accuracy of multi-step forecasting. The ultimate experimental results, in comparison with other six different models, demonstrate that the proposed model can acquire higher prediction precision.
机译:过度使用不可再生能源严重影响了环境,风电对于减轻能源危机并保护环境来说,风权具有重要意义。风速预测精度与风能有效利用率的正相关性。 BP神经网络在处理非线性问题方面具有与传统预测模型的优势,但它对不同数据具有不同的概括能力。因此,我们提出了一种基于奇异谱分析(SSA)的混合预测模型,模糊C型簇聚类(FCM)和改进的Sparrow搜索算法(ISSA-BP)。首先,在获得原始风速数据之后,采用奇异频谱分析来噪声,以提高数据质量。其次,使用FCM将BP的输入数据集分为几个类别,并且通过多个实验获得了两个不同数据集的分类数量。第三,由于参数的选择在很大程度上决定了BP神经网络的性能,因此采用改进的Sparrow搜索算法(ISSA)来优化权重和阈值。然后为每类输入数据集构建不同的ISSA-BP模型。最后,确定了预测输入的类别,并且相应的ISSA-BP用于预测。两种情况的实验结果表明,拟议的模型不仅适用于一步预测,而且还提高了多步预测的准确性。与其他六种不同模型相比,最终的实验结果表明,所提出的模型可以获得更高的预测精度。

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