The US Public Health Service House-to-House Canvass Survey of the Morbidity and Mortality of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

摘要

Between November 20, 1918, and March 12, 1919, the US Public Health Service carried out a vast population-based survey to assess the incidence rate and mortality of the influenza pandemic among 146?203 persons in 18 localities across the United States. The survey attempted to retrospectively assess all self-reported or diagnosed cases of influenza since August 1, 1918. It indicated that the cumulative incidence of symptomatic influenza over 6 months had been 29.4% (range?=?15% in Louisville, KY, to 53.3% in San Antonio, TX). The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 1.70%, and it ranged from 0.78% in San Antonio to 3.14% in New London, Connecticut. Localities with high cumulative incidence were not necessarily those with high CFR. Overall, assuming the survey missed asymptomatic cases, between August 1, 1918, and February 21, 1919, maybe more than 50% of the population was infected, and about 1% of the infected died. Eight months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has not yet launched a survey that would provide population-based estimates of incidence and CFRs analogous to those generated by the 1918 US Public Health Service house-to-house canvass survey of influenza.