Performance of spatial capture-recapture models with repurposed data: Assessing estimator robustness for retrospective applications

摘要

Advancements in statistical ecology offer the opportunity to gain further inferences from existing data with minimal financial cost. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models extend traditional capture-recapture models to incorporate spatial position of capture and enable direct estimation of animal densities across a region of interest. The additional inferences provided are both ecologically interesting and valuable for decision making, which has resulted in traditional capture-recapture data being repurposed using SCR. Yet, many capture-recapture studies were not designed for SCR and the limitations of repurposing data from such studies are rarely assessed in practice. We used simulation to evaluate the robustness of SCR for retrospectively estimating large mammal densities over a variety of scenarios using repurposed capture-recapture data collected by an asymmetrical sampling grid and covering a broad spatial extent in a heterogenous landscape. We found performance of SCR models fit using repurposed data simulated from the existing grid was not robust, but instead bias and precision of density estimates varied considerably among simulations scenarios. For example, while the smallest relatives bias of density estimates was 3%, it ranged by 14 orders of magnitude among scenarios and was most strongly influenced by detection parameters. Our results caution against the casual repurposing of non-spatial capture-recapture data using SCR and demonstrate the importance of using simulation to assessing model performance during retrospective applications.