The forecast of the number of tourists received during the National Day period in Beijing under the background of epidemic in 2020

摘要

COVID-19 suddenly outbreak not only pose a threat to people’s life and health, but also interfere with the development of national economy in our country. To investigate the outbreak of the impact of tourism, we choose Beijing as the aim of the research, using autoregressive model, Fourier series model and VAR model. Finally, according to the forecast results, we concluded that outbreak brought direct effects to the Beijing tourism, but with the outbreak under control, under the condition of government’s expansionary policies, tourism economy gradually back on track.