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Research on Freight Development of Guangdong Province Based on Grey Theory Model

机译:基于灰色理论模型的广东省货运发展研究

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Logistics and economic development complement each other. The comprehensive competitiveness of Guangdong provincial economy ranks first in China. Under the influence of COVID-19, the freight development of Guangdong Province has been affected, but there is still lack of quantitative research. It is significant to explore the trend of economic development through the freight development of Guangdong Province. Based on the grey theory model, this paper uses six freight indexes to research freight development of Guangdong Province. Under the assumption that COVID-19 did not happen, we predicted the development value of freight index of Guangdong Province from January to December in 2020 and studied the influence based on the comparison between the predicted value and actual value. The empirical study shows three impact characteristics: stage characteristics, structural characteristics, and entity transmission characteristics. COVID-19 has a negative impact on the development of total freight volume, highway freight volume, waterway freight volume, and air freight volume in Guangdong Province. The influence values were ?23.001%, ?29.344%, ?11.296%, and ?3.838%. But, the freight volumes of railway and pipeline were positively affected by 14.343% and 13.057%, respectively, due to their continuity and substitution to other transportation modes. To further explore the abate measures of COVID-19 impact on Guangdong’s freight development, the grey correlation model is introduced to study the correlation factors of freight development of Guangdong Province. Through the research of the related factors, this paper puts forward some measures to promote the freight development of Guangdong Province in the postepidemic era.
机译:物流和经济发展相互补充。广东省经济的综合竞争力在中国排名第一。在Covid-19的影响下,广东省的货运发展受到影响,但仍然缺乏量化研究。通过广东省的运价发展,探索经济发展趋势很重要。基于灰色理论模型,本文采用六个货运指标来研究广东省的货运。根据Covid-19没有发生的假设,我们预测了2020年1月至12月的广东省运费的发展价值,并在预测价值与实际价值与实际价值之间的比较研究了影响。实证研究显示了三种影响特征:阶段特征,结构特征和实体传输特性。 Covid-19对广东省全货运量,公路货运量,水路货运量和空运量的开发产生负面影响。影响值是?23.001%,?29.344%,?11.296%,呢?3.838%。但是,由于其连续性和替代到其他运输方式,铁路和管道的运费分别受到14.343%和13.057%的积极影响。为了进一步探讨Covid-19对广东货运发展影响的影响措施,介绍了灰色相关模型,研究了广东省货运发展的相关因素。通过对相关因素的研究,本文提出了一些措施,促进了广东省后期爆发时代的运费。

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