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Using wavelet transform and dynamic time warping to identify the limitations of the CNN model as an air quality forecasting system

机译:使用小波变换和动态时间翘曲来识别CNN模型作为空气质量预测系统的局限性

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As the deep learning algorithm has become a popular data analysis technique, atmospheric scientists should have a balanced perception of its strengths and limitations so that they can provide a powerful analysis of complex data with well-established procedures. Despite the enormous success of the algorithm in numerous applications, certain issues related to its applications in air quality forecasting (AQF) require further analysis and discussion. This study addresses significant limitations of an advanced deep learning algorithm, the convolutional neural network (CNN), in two common applications: (i)?a real-time AQF model and (ii)?a post-processing tool in a dynamical AQF model, the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). In both cases, the CNN model shows promising accuracy for ozone prediction 24h in advance in both the United States of America and South Korea (with an overall index of agreement exceeding 0.8). For the first case, we use the wavelet transform to determine the reasons behind the poor performance of CNN during the nighttime, cold months, and high-ozone episodes. We find that when fine wavelet modes (hourly and daily) are relatively weak or when coarse wavelet modes (weekly) are strong, the CNN model produces less accurate forecasts. For the second case, we use the dynamic time warping (DTW) distance analysis to compare post-processed results with their CMAQ counterparts (as a base model). For CMAQ results that show a consistent DTW distance from the observation, the post-processing approach properly addresses the modeling bias with predicted indexes of agreement exceeding 0.85. When the DTW distance of CMAQ versus observation is irregular, the post-processing approach is unlikely to perform satisfactorily. Awareness of the limitations in CNN models will enable scientists to develop more accurate regional or local air quality forecasting systems by identifying the affecting factors in high-concentration episodes.
机译:随着深度学习算法已成为流行的数据分析技术,大气科学家应该均衡对其优势和局限性的均衡感知,以便他们可以通过既定的程序提供对复杂数据的强大分析。尽管算法在许多应用中取得了巨大成功,但其在空气质量预测(AQF)中的应用有关的某些问题需要进一步的分析和讨论。本研究解决了两个常见应用中的高级深度学习算法,卷积神经网络(CNN)的显着限制:(i)?实时AQF模型和(ii)?动态AQF模型中的后处理工具,社区多尺度空气质量模型(CMAQ)。在这两种情况下,CNN模型表明,在美利坚合众国和韩国两者的臭氧预测的有希望的准确性(总的指数超过0.8)。对于第一种情况,我们使用小波变换来确定夜间,寒冷的月份和高臭氧剧集期间CNN性能不佳的原因。我们发现,当精细小波模式(每小时和每日)相对较弱或粗小小波模式(每周)强时,CNN模型产生不太准确的预测。对于第二种情况,我们使用动态时间翘曲(DTW)距离分析将处理后的结果与其CMAQ对应物(作为基础模型)进行比较。对于从观察显示一致DTW距离的CMAQ结果,后处理方法适当地解决了预测协议指标的建模偏差超过0.85。当CMAQ与观察的DTW距离不规则时,后处理方法不太可能令人满意地进行。对CNN模型的限制的认识将使科学家能够通过识别高浓度发作中的影响因素来开发更准确的区域或局部空气质量预测系统。

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